In continuation to my last blog what I was anticipating to happen little later may happen a bit sooner... There is a panic in UP and rest of north India.. All of a sudden mills have started to quote rs. 2 higher then y'days close.
Seems more like of a knee jerk speculative move.. but the kind of decision taken independently by center and state Govt this kind of reaction will keep coming. UP Mills are quoting as high as 3150 ex-mill.
Agri minister was seen quoting " “There is surplus sugar. This is a golden time for India to enter the global market in a big way and get a better price, which will ultimately be provided to cane growers,” Pawar told reporters
Mayawati already announced higher SAP. Center is keeping mum and not looking in a mood to react anytime soon.
So in a nutshell UP prices will be firm in short term. There are rumors of 35-36 exmill prices also but I personally feel 32-33 is where it'll stop. Reason ... There are other states as well producing Sugar.
Maharashtra, India's largest producing state is sitting again on a good healthy crop. There a fight going on between mills and farmers but it won't impact prices much so fundamentally there are no major reason for price increase in Maharashtra, so like a couple of years back, Sugar will start to move from MH to UP and I'm sure a couple of deals would have already been broken in last 2 days. Any gap beyond Rs. 2.5 will trigger sugar flow to UP/ NCR.
Southern states as of now more content with managing local market alongwith export commitment but I sense there is also some excess sugar available, however I'll have to authenticate with some millers down there.
So overall I feel that this sudden reaction will cool down in a few days but it'll help UP millers to set new base of may be around 31 ex-mill for coming months.
One lesson or rather pattern I've learnt in my 11 years of career that whenever there is a sudden jump in price of a commodity at the beginning of the season then rest of the year that commodity suffers and remain extremely range bound with bearish tendency.
Next I'm gonna share State wise production likely in coming season and more on the lesson above I wrote about.. till then Happy Trading
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